Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid

The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. Adopting the initial load of a node j to be L_j=[k_j(Σ_mΓjk_m)]^α with k_j and Γ_j being the degree of the node j and the set of its neighboring nodes, respectively, where α is a tunable parameter and governs the strength of the initial load of a node, we investigate the response of the US power grid under two attacks during the cascading propagation. In the case of α<0.7, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks in the case of α=0.7 may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.     

电厂袋式除尘器滤袋故障分析及处理

以北京高井热电厂为对象,运用故障树分析的方法,对袋式除尘器及滤袋失效进行了故障树分析,并将之演变为成功树,提出了防止滤袋失效的措施。     

我国危险化学品事故统计分析及对策研究

基于2005—2008年我国发生的1565起危险化学品事故,从事故发生时间、发生地点、发生环节等方面分析事故的致因、特点以及规律,可以发现:近3年来我国危险化学品事故呈逐渐下降趋势;石化产业大省是危险化学品事故高发省份;每年3—8月是危险化学品事故高发时期;每天上午10点和下午3点是危险化学品事故高发时间;生产、运输、储存是危险化学品产业链六大环节中的事故高发环节。根据统计结果分析,指出我国危险化学品安全管理存在的问题,并提出预防和减少危险化学品事故的对策。     

湖南2008/2011年两次低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因与影响对比分析

针对2008年1月13日-2月2日和2011年1月1-23日两次低温雨雪冰冻过程,从天气学成因、对交通、电力影响情况和特点等方面进行综合对比分析,揭示了两次过程的强度和造成灾情差异的原因,并提出了如何进一步防御和减轻极端天气气候事件灾害的能力,为暴雪冰冻灾害防御提供经验和依据。     

Effects of combinations of malathion and cypermethrin on survivability and time of metamorphosis of tadpoles of Indian cricket frog (Fejervarya limnocharis)

This study was undertaken to determine the effect of environmentally realistic concentrations of two commonly used pesticides viz., malathion and cypermethrin, using a fully 3 × 3 factorial experiments on the survivability and time of metamorphosis in a common rice paddy field frog (cricket frog) Fejervarya limnocharis under laboratory conditions. The results suggest that cypermethrin is more toxic than malathion and combinations of higher concentrations of cypermethrin (50 μg/L) with malathion (250 and 500 μg/L) are more deleterious to the survivability of tadpoles. With increasing cypermethrin concentration, the survivability of tadpole decreased (r = ?0.986, P = 0.108). But cypermethrin alone induced early metamorphosis among the surviving tadpoles. However, there was a delay in the time required for metamorphosis induced by malathion and its combination with cypermethrin. The delay in metamorphosis may indicate the altered physiological fitness of the individual. The emergent froglets will be subjected to environmental stressors like high temperature and less humidity of post-monsoon tropical climate that could enhance negative influence triggered by pesticides.     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

两种不同的恒载升温方式下的钢材破坏机理分析

通过对我国建筑结构用钢在拉伸和压缩两种方式下的恒载升温试验,进行了5次受拉试件和2次受压试件的对比研究,根据试验中材料的各自变形规律,对其破坏机理进行了理论分析;从材料屈服的定义出发,给出了恒载升温拉伸试验中的参数(对应温度下的临界荷载水平),并与恒载升温压缩试验中的参数项进行了对比,指出受压构件和受拉构件的高温屈服强度是不同的,因此在钢结构建筑的耐火设计中应分别取不同的安全系数。     

复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) has existed for a long time and for most of this time it has been cloaked in mystery. Several theories have been put forward to explain this very energetic event but none have been proven. This paper describes a series of tests that have recently been conducted to study this phenomenon.

The study involved ASME code automotive propane tanks with nominal capacities of 400 litres. The tanks were exposed to a combination of pool and/or torch fires. These fire conditions led to thermal ruptures, and in some cases these ruptures resulted in BLEVEs. The variables in the tests were the pressure-relief valve setting, the tank wall thickness, and the fire condition.

In total, 30 tests have been conducted, of which 22 resulted in thermal ruptures. Of those tanks that ruptured, 11 resulted in what we call BLEVEs. In this paper, we have defined a BLEVE as the explosive release of expanding vapour and boiling liquid following a catastrophic tank failure. Non-BLEVEs involved tanks that ruptured but which only resulted in a prolonged jet release.

The objective of this study was to investigate why certain tank ruptures lead to a BLEVE rather than a more benign jet-type release. Data are presented to show how wall temperature, wall thickness, liquid temperature and fill level contribute to the BLEVE process.     

1993年江西省洪涝灾害分析

１９９３年江西省发生了较严重的洪涝灾害。本文阐述了灾情，从自然因素和人为因素两个方面，分析了造成洪涝灾害的原因；并对今后如何搞好江西省洪涝灾害减灾，提出若干看法与建议。